Catalog
Episodes
Reaction Podcast: Trump Goes LongMar 5, 2025 · 31 minGalen speaks with Nathaniel Rakich and Mary Radcliffe in this late night reaction to President Trump's address to Congress.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices- Is The Era Of ‘Macho Man’ Politics Here?Mar 3, 2025 · 41 minCongress has kept relatively quiet during the first month of President Donald Trump's second term, but in the coming weeks it will be thrust into the spotlight. Amidst intraparty Republican debate over tax and spending cuts, Trump will deliver an address to Congress on Tuesday night. Legislators will also be tasked with funding the government by March 14 or face a shutdown.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Rachael Bade and Geoffrey Skelley about what to expect from congressional negotiations. They also ask whether a new poll on attitudes around gender norms is a good or bad use of polling.
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- No, It's Not Getting More Dangerous To FlyFeb 27, 2025 · 37 minIt has been a difficult month for Americans afraid of flying. On Jan. 29, an American Airlines jet collided with a Black Hawk helicopter over the Potomac River, killing 67 people. It was the first major U.S. commercial airline crash in more than 15 years and in the weeks since, there has been coverage of more plane crashes, accidents and near misses across the country.
If headlines like these give you anxiety, you are not alone. According to polling from the AP, the share of Americans who say flying is somewhat or very unsafe has increased, from 12 percent a year ago to 20 percent this month. And that poll found something else. The decrease in trust Americans have in flying is not spread evenly across partisan groups. Republicans’ feelings about air travel remain virtually unchanged from 12 months ago, while trust has fallen among Democrats and independents.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen discusses the data with CNN Senior Data Reporter and 538 alumnus himself Harry Enten.
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- Democrats Aren't Popular. What Should They Do About It?Feb 24, 2025 · 43 minThe Democratic Party has reached at least a 15-year low in the public’s view, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. Fifty-seven percent of registered voters have an unfavorable view of the party, while that’s just 45 percent for the Republican Party. And more Democrats than not have an unfavorable opinion of their own members of Congress. Some Democrats say the party isn't doing enough to counter President Donald Trump, but when it comes to how the party should change, there doesn't seem to be clear agreement.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Washington Post data scientist Lenny Bronner and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about how parties usually handle being in the political wilderness and how the party might evolve. They also discuss the results of Sunday's election in Germany.
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- Trump's Theory Of Presidential PowerFeb 19, 2025 · 37 minIn honor of Presidents’ Day, in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen speaks with constitutional law professor Peter Shane about presidential power and its limits during President Trump's second term.
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- A Valentine? In This Romantic Recession?Feb 14, 2025 · 37 minOn this Valentine’s Day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen is joined by Daniel Cox and Kelsey Eyre Hammond of the Survey Center on American Life. They discuss the troubled state of American dating life and how the country fell into a “romantic recession.”
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- How Data Became A Political FootballFeb 10, 2025 · 39 minIn this post-Super Bowl edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew kicks things off with some prop bets and a look at the rapid rise of sports gambling. Then they dig into the offlining of key government datasets under President Donald Trump and why it matters for more than just data nerds. Finally, they analyze the high rate of Republican turnover in a Congress that’s becoming increasingly aligned with Trump.
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- The View From EuropeFeb 6, 2025 · 38 minIn the post-war world order, the United States and Europe have been among the closest of allies. What happens if President Donald Trump upends that equation? Jeanna Smialek, Brussels bureau chief for The New York Times, joins the show to break down the view from Europe. They take a look at how European leaders are reacting to the early days of Trump’s second term, the strategies EU nations are using in response to Trump's abrasive rhetoric, and how a tariff fight might play out across the European economy.
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- Will Tariffs End Trump’s Honeymoon?Feb 3, 2025 · 39 minAfter months of promising to impose tariffs on U.S. trading partners, President Donald Trump has made good on his word. On Friday, he announced 10 percent tariffs on China and 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, though the latter has been delayed by a month. Today on the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down these tariff orders and how Americans feel about them. They also dive into Trump’s approval rating using 538’s new tracker and discuss how Democrats are preparing for a future counteroffensive.
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- Trump’s Federal Funding FiascoJan 30, 2025 · 42 minThis week, the Trump administration oversaw a federal funding fiasco. The Office of Management and Budget issued a memo attacking DEI programs and putting trillions in government funding at risk. States sued, and the administration backtracked —rescinding the memo but keeping the underlying order intact. As this unfolds, we ask: How much power does Trump’s administration actually have to withhold funding? Matt Glassman, senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, joins the podcast to discuss impoundment, executive power and the legal battles ahead.
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- What Americans Think About Trump's PlansJan 27, 2025 · 36 minPresident Donald Trump begins his second term as one of the least popular presidents in modern polling history. Yet, many of his policies — such as those surrounding DEI programs and immigration — are more popular than ever. What do Americans want from Trump’s second term? The crew delves into this question, exploring thermostatic public opinion, Trump’s strategy of testing the waters on key issues and the nuances of question wording.
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- Will Trump's Agenda Make It Through Congress?Jan 23, 2025 · 34 minThe first few days of President Donald Trump’s second term have featured an avalanche of executive orders. But Trump’s authority as commander-in-chief will only take his agenda so far. His most ambitious goals must pass through Congress, where Republicans control both chambers, albeit by slim margins.
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen is joined by Rachael Bade, Politico’s Capitol Hill bureau chief and senior Washington columnist. They discuss congressional Republicans’ plans for the coming months, what they’re saying behind closed doors and what, if anything, Democrats plan to do to resist Trump’s agenda.
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- Trump's Second Term BeginsJan 21, 2025 · 47 minThe crew reacts to President Donald Trump’s second inaugural address, as well as Trump’s plans for issuing dozens of executive orders.
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- The Highs and Lows of Biden’s PresidencyJan 16, 2025 · 48 minWith just days remaining in President Joe Biden’s term, the crew reflects on the past four years and tries to determine how this administration will be remembered. What were the high points, the low points and the most notable moments? They discuss Biden’s industrial policymaking, the vaccine rollout, inflation and the tumultuous summer of 2024. And they cover the destructive wildfires currently impacting Los Angeles.
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- How Serious Is Trump About Greenland?Jan 13, 2025 · 30 minWith one week remaining before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, the nation is orienting itself towards his policy goals. Will they include the addition of new American territory? On this episode of the podcast, the crew breaks down Trump’s recent comments about Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal. They also unpack how they are thinking about these types of comments from Trump — should they be taken literally, seriously or both? And, the crew discusses former President Jimmy Carter’s life and legacy.
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- Campaign Throwback: 'The Beer Question'Jan 9, 2025 · 23 minThis is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today.
In our third installment: "the beer question." After the 2000 and 2004 elections, political observers remarked that Republican George W. Bush defeated his Democratic opponents in part because he was the candidate who voters would rather "have a beer with." The phrase quickly became a cliche for evaluating a candidate's likability or relatability. But is it really how voters choose their presidents?
This episode originally aired in May 2024.
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- What Will The Politics of 2025 Look Like?Jan 6, 2025 · 44 minWhat’s on the horizon for American politics in 2025? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the team dives into what lies ahead. They start with Washington, analyzing President-elect Donald Trump’s first 100 days and the challenges Republicans face with their slim congressional majority. Next, they explore how public opinion on critical issues like the economy and immigration could evolve with Trump back in office. Finally, the crew turns to 2025’s pivotal electoral races, breaking down what’s at stake in the year to come.
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- Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'Dec 30, 2024 · 27 minThis is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today.
In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Republican Bob Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct?
This episode originally aired in May.
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- Campaign Throwback: 'The Economy, Stupid'Dec 23, 2024 · 23 minThis is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today.
Our first installment: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It's a trope that dates back to Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. Clinton's chief strategist at the time, James Carville, had three main messages for his staff to remember: 1) Change vs. more of the same 2) The economy, stupid, and 3) Don't forget about healthcare. The second message was memorialized in a 1993 documentary about the Clinton campaign called "The War Room," and has taken on a life of its own in the field of election analysis. But is it accurate?
This episode originally aired in May.
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- What We're Putting In Our 2024 Time CapsuleDec 19, 2024 · 41 minWhat would you save to remember 2024 in politics? In the second part of our end-of-year series on the 538 Politics podcast, the crew builds a time capsule to capture the political essence of the year. From a Dean Phillips bumper sticker to President-elect Donald Trump’s 16-page indictment and the 538 polling average, they debate what deserves to be preserved. Plus, a discussion on the looming government shutdown.
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- Our 2024 SuperlativesDec 16, 2024 · 41 minHow do you measure a year? In votes cast? Money spent? Or in “seasons of love”? On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to find out by making a yearbook and assigning superlatives.
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- What Happens To Trump's Legal Cases Now?Dec 12, 2024 · 39 minEarlier this year, as President-elect Donald Trump mounted his campaign to return to the presidency, it seemed like one of the biggest barriers to his election would be the battery of criminal and civil cases that had been filed against him. Now, as we near Trump’s inauguration day, what will happen to them?
Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the podcast to unpack the fate of the legal cases against Trump. She provides clarity on the status of the major cases, discusses the potential impact of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling on Trump’s presidency, and examines President Joe Biden’s use of the pardon.
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- A Topsy-Turvy Week In ReviewDec 9, 2024 · 31 minWhat even happened last week?! On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew catches Galen up as he returns from a rare week away from his push notifications. They take a look at President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, the status of House Republicans’ slim majority, and examine the polling on President Joe Biden’s controversial pardon of his son Hunter. They also turn an eye to foreign affairs, checking in on recent developments in South Korea and Syria.
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- Your Post-Election Questions, AnsweredDec 5, 2024 · 47 minIn this post-election mailbag episode, the crew tackles your burning questions about the 2024 election. Why did Democrats have lower turnout than four years ago? Is misinformation skewing some voters’ view of reality? Did Harris lose because of her candidacy and campaign style, or due to the broader political environment? And where does post-election voter data even come from, anyways?
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- The 2026 Midterms Are Only 701 Days AwayDec 2, 2024 · 38 minGalen is out today, so 538’s Nathaniel Rakich steps in to guide the crew through the numbers. They unpack President Joe Biden’s surprise decision to pardon his son Hunter, exploring the historical context for such a move and how it might resonate with the American public.
They also turn their attention to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing the prospects for both the House and Senate. They discuss whether Republicans can hang on to their trifecta, and examine the challenges Democrats face in their efforts to reclaim control of Congress.
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- Voters Lose Their Appetite For IncumbentsNov 25, 2024 · 41 minIn this Thanksgiving week installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew sits down for a three-course discussion. First, a new poll suggests that economic sentiment data might be even more warped by partisanship than we thought. After that, it’s another round of "Buy, Sell, Hold." Will the Senate confirm Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence? Will President-elect Donald Trump pardon himself? Finally, the crew considers whether 2024 will go down as the death knell of the incumbent advantage.
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- How The Polls Did In 2024Nov 21, 2024 · 27 minElection Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls.
Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years.
But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors.
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- What Americans Expect From Trump's Second TermNov 18, 2024 · 39 minWe are beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like. President-elect Donald Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus, and this has all led to predictions about what will and won’t happen in a second Trump administration.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we turn to predictions markets and polling to assess the expectations that consumers, Wall Street traders, online bettors and everyday Americans have for Trump's second term.
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- A 'Realignment' Among Latino VotersNov 14, 2024 · 40 minLatino voters made a big jump to the right this election cycle. While the numbers aren’t final, AP Votecast reports an 8-point shift and Edison exit polls indicate more than a 14-point swing.
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, joins us on the podcast to unpack why Latino voters shifted right. He discusses the importance of issues like the economy and immigration, Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have emerged as one of the nation’s most prominent swing groups.
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- The Best And Worst Post-Election Hot TakesNov 11, 2024 · 38 minSince Election Day, there’s been no shortage of hot takes explaining what happened and what it all means. Have Democrats lost the working class? Does President-elect Donald Trump have an unprecedentedly powerful mandate? Were the polls wrong? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew dives into these questions and others, determining which ones are more fact than fiction. They also check in on the status of the House and Senate and discuss how many downballot Democrats managed to overperform compared to Vice President Kamala Harris.
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- Donald Trump Wins The PresidencyNov 6, 2024 · 33 minIn this late-night, election-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the results showing Donald Trump winning a second presidential term.
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- An Hour-By-Hour Guide To Election NightNov 5, 2024 · 42 minAt long last, Election Day is upon us. In this final pre-results episode, the crew shares a guide for what to expect on election night — from the first poll closures in Indiana, to the last poll closures in Alaska. They set expectations for how long the vote may take to tally and which counties to keep an eye on.
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- The Pollercoaster Takes A Final PlungeNov 4, 2024 · 39 minPolls were coming in hot and heavy over the weekend! In fact, 164 surveys were entered into the 538 database since Friday. In this Election Day eve episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior researcher Mary Radcliffe and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about what we are seeing in those final polls.
They discuss the famed Iowa Poll from Ann Selzer, which showed a rosy picture for Harris, and the battleground polling from the New York Times, which showed results that frustrate some of the trends we've come to expect this cycle. They also share some final thoughts on the election in the run up to the big day.
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- Galen’s Cauldron Of QueriesOct 31, 2024 · 39 minIt’s not just election season; it’s spooky season, too.
In this Halloween installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew opens up the mailbag and answers listeners’ questions. Does favorability matter? Can bad weather affect turnout? And what would you do with an election crystal ball?
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- Will 2024 Be A Disputed Election?Oct 30, 2024 · 35 minLooking back on the 2020 election, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day stands out as one of the most fraught and uncertain in recent American history. Will 2024 follow a similar path? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, to provide a clearer picture of what we might expect after Election Day. They discuss when results could be expected, the types of misinformation that may circulate after the votes are cast, and why this election is seeing more litigation than any before it.
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- Do Voters Care About Democracy?Oct 28, 2024 · 35 minLast week, John Kelly, former President Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said Trump fit the definition of a “fascist.” Democrats have seized on the comment, using it to underline Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies in these final days before Election Day.
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much voters care about democracy. And they look at a new poll that might shed light on the behavior of a new group of swing voters: young men.
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- The Most Valuable Data PointOct 24, 2024 · 32 minWe are awash in data. As Election Day draws near, and new polls continue to pile up, our information overload will only intensify.
So today on the 538 Politics podcast, we’re simplifying. We asked 11 very smart people just one question: What is the most valuable data point you’re watching to understand this election? These are their answers.
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- How the Diploma Divide Took Over Our PoliticsOct 23, 2024 · 40 minFor decades, Republicans were thought of as the country club set, while Democrats were the party of the working class. But increasingly, education has become a larger dividing line in American politics than economic status. This trend has seen college-educated voters move toward the Democratic Party and non-college-educated voters shift toward Republicans.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Matt Grossmann and David Hopkins, authors of "Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics." They explore how this educational divide is reshaping not just electoral outcomes, but the way each party approaches governance and policy.
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- A New Kind Of Undecided VoterOct 21, 2024 · 38 minWith Election Day just two weeks away, Republicans and Democrats are zeroing in on undecided voters. But the profile of the typical swing voter has changed. Move over, soccer moms. Say hello to … podcast bros?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at who the undecided voters are in this election. They also examine what appears to be a surprisingly competitive Senate race in ruby-red Nebraska.
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- A 538 Election Road TripOct 17, 2024 · 44 minWe talk plenty about the presidential race on the 538 Politics podcast, but of course, that is not the only thing on the ballot this November. Americans will cast their votes in races for the U.S. Senate and House, as well as dozens of ballot initiatives.
In this installment of the podcast, we’re going on a road trip across the country to cover as many noteworthy downballot races as possible. We start in the 538 podcast studio in New York state, where House Democrats are hoping for a better outcome than their lackluster 2022 performance, and we end in Alaska. Grab your favorite snacks and get in!
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- Weighting For Election DayOct 14, 2024 · 34 minWith three weeks until Election Day, the 538 crew analyzes the state of what remains an extremely close presidential race. They also wade into the (very nerdy) debate over “weighting by recalled vote” that is roiling the polling community.
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- The Battle For The AirwavesOct 10, 2024 · 47 minFor those in swing states, political ads are an inescapable part of life. But if you haven’t experienced the blitz firsthand, this episode of the 538 Politics podcast offers a glimpse into the barrage of campaign messages flooding our screens. Erika Franklin Fowler, director of the Wesleyan Media Project and professor of government at Wesleyan University, joins the podcast to break down the wave of ads hitting TVs, phones and browsers this election season. We explore whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris has the upper hand and the topics dominating both national and downballot races.
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- Beneath A Steady Race, A Shifting AmericaOct 7, 2024 · 38 minThere is officially less than a month until Election Day. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we consider what it would mean for the Electoral College map if the polls are correct in suggesting a racial and generational realignment. We also look at how views of the conflict in the Middle East have evolved in the year since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack. And, with new information about former President Donald Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election, whether his behavior surrounding the last election is shaping Americans' willingness to vote for him this time.
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- Vance Performed Well In VP Debate. Will It Matter?Oct 2, 2024 · 27 minThe crew reacts to the first and only vice-presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance in this late-night podcast.
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- In A Topsy-Turvy World, The Candidates Stick To These Three IssuesSep 30, 2024 · 42 minThere's a lot going on in the world as we head into the final stretch of the 2024 election: a devastating hurricane, a growing war in the Middle East, multiple high profile scandals and an upcoming VP debate. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks whether any of these big stories are changing the subject of the campaign.
They also look at how former President Trump and Vice President Harris are appealing to voters on some of the issues voters say are most important to them: the economy, immigration and abortion. Both Harris and Trump recently gave major economic speeches, Harris talked tough on immigration during a visit to the Southern border and Trump tried to allay concerns about his stance on abortion. But are they changing voters' perceptions?
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- How To Read Polls In 2024Sep 26, 2024 · 43 minWe are in the frantic final weeks of the presidential campaign, which means Americans are obsessing over polling data more than usual. At 538, we cover this stuff year-round. So today on the show, we’re going back to the fundamentals. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a seasoned political hack or a bright-eyed newcomer: Everyone can benefit from our 10 Essentials Of Following Polls.
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- Is Trump Losing His Electoral College Advantage?Sep 23, 2024 · 40 minAs early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They discuss whether early voting data can offer clues about November's outcome, analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. Plus, the team previews 538’s new Senate polling averages, focusing on the races that could determine control of the chamber.
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- Has Harris Changed The Election For Black Voters?Sep 19, 2024 · 41 minEarlier this year, it seemed like the long-standing pattern of Black voters as steadfast Democrats was shifting, with a record-high percentage choosing former President Donald Trump in survey after survey. However, Vice President Kamala Harris's candidacy has sparked new enthusiasm among Black voters, boosting both engagement and her popularity. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen examines these shifts with Chryl Laird, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland, and Kiana Cox, a senior researcher at the Pew Research Center, exploring the evolving political landscape and what Harris's run means for Black voter dynamics.
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- Gen Z’s Historic Gender GapSep 16, 2024 · 40 minThe U.S. Secret Service thwarted another apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen speaks with 538's Mary Radcliffe and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik about how Americans view political violence.
They also look at whether presidential election polls have shifted in response to last week's debate and discuss a recent Gallup analysis showing a yawning gender gap among young Americans.
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- Harris Trolls Defensive Trump In DebateSep 11, 2024 · 32 minThe crew reacts to the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in this late night podcast.
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